The Rookies

Is a Cy Young in the distance?

I imagine that all voting members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America are graying dinosaurs who are terrified of all numbers that aren’t Ws, Ls, and ERA when discussing a pitcher’s merit. (It’s exactly as fair as them picturing me as a morbidly obese, socially stunted basement dweller, so we’re even.)

Zack Greinke doesn’t have very many wins. He’s not going to win 20 games this season. That’s a certainty.

What’s almost as certain is that most of the Cy Young voters will not be able to cast a ballot in favor of a guy whose win total does not start with ‘2.’

If ZG23 doesn’t win the Cy Young, life will go on. He doesn’t need the $100,000 prize money, and he’s a few years away from negotiating another contract, so the absence of the award from his current resume isn’t going to keep some other team from lavishing him with the big bucks. He’ll still be himself next season even if announcers don’t refer to him as “reigning Cy Young winner Zack Greinke.”

But if he does win it, life will also go on. Greinke will be celebrated by ESPN people who still won’t know anything about him; his first name will still get spelled with an ‘h’ by all non-Royals publications; the team that takes the field around him will still suck. He’ll still be a Royal, but it will be a victory for newer, more accurate stats than the almighty W.

Before Sunday’s game, I was discussing Cy candidates with another blogger, who is not a Royals fan. I pulled up a bunch of stats that suggested Greinke as a good winner. Even one of the older, past-its-prime stats, ERA, showed Greinke dominance: At 2.43, it was already first in the American League.

Then he threw another complete game shutout to lower it to 2.32.

His 2.40 FIP also lead the league already, and it wasn’t all that close. (His brilliant Sunday performance lowered that, too.)

He’s third in the league in strikeouts per nine innings, behind Justin Verlander and Jon Lester. He’s among the leaders in walks per nine, and of the pitchers who are better there, only Roy Halladay is in the Cy discussion. Roy’s the only one ahead of Zack in K/BB ratio. Nobody’s better than Greinke at limiting homers (0.55 HR/9 before Sunday). Jarrod “Jar Rod” Washburn, of all people, is the only pitcher with a lower WHIP.

So, yeah, Zack Greinke only has 13 wins, and he’s not going to rack up too many more, because he’s got the lowly, hapless, bottom-feeding, disappointing, soul-crushing, unbeliavably awful Royals behind him, and they’ll continue to not score when he’s pitching.

But if his sub-20 number of double-yous is what keeps him from winning something he deserves, the BBWAA is only serving to confirm every stereotype we saber-minded whippersnappers have about those crusty old bastards.