The Rookies

Usain Bolt is physically majestic, his otherworldly speed seemingly too wonderful to constrain with an inadequate metaphor.

But how good is he, really? Let’s try to contextualize his dominance.

Tyson Gay just ran the third-fastest legal time in the 100 meters in human history. (¹) He is faster over 100 meters than any human not named Usain Bolt has ever been, and by a stunning number of standard deviations. And yet, Bolt dusted him, running a 9.58 to Gay’s 9.71. That .13 seconds of difference is a 1.35% difference in speed (9.71/9.58 = 1.0135).

Michael Phelps, a Bolt comparison for all eternity, beat Milorad Cavic in the 50-meter butterfly at swimming’s world championships this month, clocking a 49.82 to Cavic’ 49.95. It’s the same .13 seconds of difference, clearly, but only a .26% difference in speed (49.95/49.82 = 1.0026).

Comparing him to Tiger Woods’ dominance and one of the greatest duels in recent memory nets some more interesting numbers.

Tiger’s biggest victory in a major championship was at the U.S. Open in 2000, when he stormed Pebble Beach for a 12-under 272, fifteen strokes better than his closest competitor, Jose Maria Olazabal. Here we have a large, 5.51% difference in the number of strokes played (287/272 = 1.0551), an advantage much bigger than Bolt’s.

But no one in that tournament was setting scoring records but Tiger; though Gay lost, and badly, to Bolt, he still set an American record. That’s why looking to the brilliantly-played 2008 Wimbledon final is revealing.

That Rafael Nadal victory over Roger Federer saw a 209-204 difference in points won, which amounts to a 1.95% advantage in Nadal’s favor (209/204 = 1.0195). Nadal and Federer may be the best current analogues for Bolt and Gay: Each is a fantastic athlete in his own right, their rivalry brings each to a new level, and one nipping the other only obscures how titanic the loser’s talent is. Their match, hailed as one of the greatest in tennis history, certainly shows one being sublime while the other is superb, much like Bolt beating Gay’s record-setting pace.

Where the comparison really breaks down, though, is in its application over time and the different surfaces of tennis. Nadal was only better at Wimbledon on that one day—he was beaten in four sets in 2006 and five without a tiebreak in 2007. And while he’s been Federer’s master on clay, that 9-2 mark inflates his overall record against Federer considerably, making the rivalry look more one-sided than it really is.

Further, Bolt and Gay haven’t been the lasting duopoly in track and field that Federer and Nadal have been in tennis, and they haven’t been racing on surfaces that are more than marginally different. There also hasn’t been much rivalry of late: Though Gay beat Bolt in the 200 meters at the world championships in 2007, that was about the last event before Bolt’s dedication caught up to his awesome potential. Since then, Gay has been relegated to second place or worse, while Bolt has all but taken up residence atop a medal podium in both the 100 and 200, setting world records in each.

I’m aware that it’s easy to grasp at numbers from outside speed-based sports and make this flawed comparison, and that there’s a slew of other issues (equipment and weather in golf; tennis being by definition reflexive) that relegates this piece to a thought experiment nowhere near rigorous examination. But I think they do help sketch an outline of each athlete’s lead on the pack, or at least on the first challenger.

And looking at the Bolt/Gay comparison makes Bolt look ludicrously good in the old ways.

Gay’s the fastest American in history, but he’s also the second-fastest human. His 9.71 is only .1% and .01 seconds better than the 9.72 Asafa Powell turned in last year (9.72/9.71 = 1.0010), but Powell’s 9.72 is .7% and .07 seconds better than Maurice Greene’s 9.79 (9.79/9.72 = 1.0072).

It follows that Gay and Powell, at their best, are better than every sprinter not named Usain Bolt to ever run the 100 meters, but by less than 1%.

Bolt’s 9.58 is more than 1% better than his two closest competitors. Stunningly, he is further ahead of them than they are in front of everyone else.

Even in the relative nascence of his sprinting career, he’s established that his only competitors are history and physics.

More frightening is that this sprinter nonpareil is also a talent that still seems raw enough for further improvement. His future is as bright as his present.

After all, Bolt’s 9.58 improved upon his own scorching 9.69 from Beijing by 1.15% (9.69/9.58 = 1.0148), though, it should be noted, he pulled up at the end of the Olympic victory.

What if he’s not done yet, as his post-race comments imply?

“I know I said 9.4,” Bolt said, grinning. “You never know. I’ll just keep on working.”

How fast can Usain Bolt get?

This link’s down here because the YouTube versions will die quickly. The ESPN video below for context.