Last Call: Let’s Get Statistical
Let's retire the nerdery remarks.
It is not hard to learn about stats. It is not hard to learn about stats. It is not hard to learn about stats. It is not hard to learn about stats.
If I say it enough times, will anyone believe me and give it a try? This is 2009. We are, as a whole, a pretty smart bunch of people, right? So why are so many people stubbornly holding on to archaic baseball stats that don’t paint the right pictures?
These questions brood inside my mind any time TV announcers, radio talk show hosts, newspaper columnists, or even bloggers rail against stat-nerds like me. For the most part, the people who speak out the loudest against sabermetrics are the people who have put the least effort into understanding them.
This week, the “argument” that really set me off was in a blog that’s run by the Kansas City Star – normally an excellent bunch of sports writers. In a post about Zack Greinke, Martin Manley wrote:
“I’m a HUGE believer in general stats – as opposed to saberesoteric stats. I like the kind that people use, identify with and understand. If you don’t understand them because they are too complicated, what’s the point in talking about them – unless you are trying to convince a GM on a trade?”
Manley went on to try to describe Greinke’s awesomeness by talking about his number of Quality Starts. Great. That is a lovely little number but it really doesn’t say much about HOW well Greinke, or any starter, pitched in a given game. But Manley wants to keep using it because people are “comfortable” with it. How does he think people got to that comfort level– with the QS, with RBI, with batting average, any well-known but deeply flawed stat – in the first place? People used those stats, that’s how.
So why can’t we make a NEW comfort level? With all the resources out there, what’s to stop people from saying, “I see the flaws in this stat, and I want to DO something about it?” If you want to break into the magical world of sabermetrics, start with this Joe Posnanski blog post. Check out this very well-written and easy-to-follow book from Baseball Prospectus.
And lastly, it’s OK to ask questions. If you know a stat-nerd, it’s fine to ask why wOBA is a kickass stat, or what the heck FIP is. You can ask me, or Rockabye, for that matter. He can tell you that it doesn’t take much time to become acquainted with a bunch of newfangled stats that so many people seem to be afraid of. (Rock note: Be careful what you wish for, though; I did spend three hours Friday night trying to see what I could deduce about David Ortiz’ power drought from FanGraphs.)
Learning about stats doesn’t mean subtracting from the enjoyment of a ballgame; it just means you’ll know more ways to enjoy it.
Making the Rounds
Buch expounds on football, baseball, and modernity. (The Phoenix Pub)
When it’s time to party, Penn State parties hard. (Souvenir City)
Two Yellows sees Chelsea/Milan. (Avoiding the Drop)
Joba breaks down Phil Hughes. (3:10 to Joba
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Soundtrack to Merriment
This is Michael Franti. Song’s called “Say Hey.” It’s fun.
You know, statistics wasn’t hard…the third time I took that class. In all fairness, my high school teacher was more concerned with golf than teaching, but the other time, totally hard. I am envious of people for whom statistics comes naturally.
Good stuff, Minda. I think one of the reasons people are afraid to discuss new stats is from a fear of looking stupid, though. For every person who gives a well-thought-out explanation of OPS or wOBA, there are plenty more whose reactions are more in line with “OMG! I can’t believe how dumb you are not to know that!” That comes into play with criticism of mainstream writers, too; some of the criticism I’ve seen seems not to be “Well, this piece makes sense along conventional lines, but a closer look at some (carefully explained) advanced statistics might suggest something else”, but rather “LOL this guy is such a stupid tool.” In my mind, traditional and new statistics are both valuable, and the sports world would be better off if the two camps focused more on intelligent debate and less on taking shots at each other.
I find it hard to believe that anyone would call you a dumb tool. Seriously, I’m a snooty bitch who thinks highly of herself and you make me feel dumb.
Quality starts: The best measure of an average pitcher.
The minimum for a QS is a 4.50 ERA.
Yup, these are our statboys.
By the way: I heartily endorse Baseball Between the Numbers.
If you’re looking to go even further, take a look at The Book by Tom Tango. But you probably already knew that.
Oh yeah, I dig The Book. I just have a soft spot in my heart for BBTN, because that’s what took me from “curious” to “full-fledged, statgasming nerd.” I enjoy baseball a lot more now than I did before that book, and I just think it’s a really good one for people who are just getting started.
100% agreed.
I know it was my first “statgasming nerd” book too.
So, is it cool to be a stat-geek yet? Will someone let me know? Please?
Oooooohhh… tornado Warning… at least Charter had the decency to wait for a commercial.
Own it! I’m resigned to the fact that my obsession w/ cognitive science and linguistics will never be cool.
Yes, but aren’t you also bilingual? I can barely hack through English.
Yes, but I was raised speaking 2 languages. I don’t see it as much as a talent as life.
Eh, I was raised to be a beisbol loving nerd. It all works out in the end I guess.
Hmmm… gonna have to use Chrome for all Rookies posts I guess. Stoopid reply button gets all mussed up.
Yeah? It’s fine for me in Firefox. Hope it starts behaving for you too.
Good with Chrome… not so good with whatever version of IE I was using… but I’m mostly resistant to change, so I’ll take the hit.
I’ve also noticed I’m really chatty tonight. Oy.
Oh… Steve Phillips on the field… WHY don’t we have a bounty out on his head NOW????
Sup Last Call. 3 Myers’s and Tonic deep, countless number to go. It’s been the most brutal of days.
What’s haps?
Split with a lady friend of 2+ years today. I’ll come around eventually but in the meantime liquor serves as the great equalizer.
Also, can I beg that we keep it light? Yesterday was uncomfortable to say the least.
What happened yesterday?
Someone signed up to talk specifically to me about the Rothleisberger case and how “being falsely accused of rape can ruin a guys life.” It was weird. It also makes me think that either people aren’t reading what I write or I’m not stating my ideas clearly.
Oh… yeah I was here for a bit of that. I thought you made your point in a clear and understandable manor. Some people just like to argue for the sake of arguing.
So what do you think about the situation in Uganda?
/may or may not be a situation in Uganda
actually you said something a while back about liking Jeff Koons, Damien Hirst that I forgot to ask you about. Why are you drawn towards that type of modern art?
While I can appreciate the visual aesthetics of a shark in formaldehyde, I don’t see the art in it or what makes it worth millions of dollars.
I actually don’t like the shark stuff. I’m more drawn to Hirst’s skull and most of Koons’s work. I like the juxtaposition of ugliness, pop culture, and stuff that is aesthetically pleasing.
I can agree with that for the most part. The skull is a work of over the top decadance that is enjoyable. I just question things like Koons giant balloon dogs, and actually most of Koons work where it borders very much on art and stupid ideas someone came up with on acid.
I’ve always just questioned weather cast aluminum models of children’s pool toys or hirst’s spin art on a pair of pants were art when really anyone could do them with the right tools.
Probably, but they thought of it and did it. It’s not as if it’s a tampon in a teacup.
(If anyone gets that reference, I will be so happy!)
I didn’t go to any soccer games in which my team got thrashed today, so I guess I can be a jovial fella tonight.
Evening all, who’s excited for the bachelorette finale tonight? Nobody? Yeah, me neither, but that’s what’s gonna be on the tv. You laugh, but I’ll start liveblogging it if you’re not careful. But hey, it’s better than another evening of talking Ben R., right?
Hi, Simmons.
I would recommend tonight as a night for hanging with Internet friends.
Whoo, reprieve, she’s decided to watch it tomorrow when I’m not around. Yay.
The simple joys of the DVR.
Howdy folks. Just a sign we do take viewer suggestions. Since we weren’t able to get the ATD guys… CPSL will be on…
Oh so those fuckers have lives now? Whatever, CPSL is hilarious, it will be entertaining.
Wow, that’s pretty harsh. I was sort of busy until about an hour ago.
lol…I call you guys “fuckers” lovingly. I tend to use big words when I truly dislike someone.
Like, “motherfuckers”?
I’ll go back to the corner now.
I’ve been called worse lately. Depending on your “curseword scale”.
2Y=R- Were you called a cunt?
Yep. Several times. Drunk fratboy Chelsea wankers.
It’s not a thing, brother. You guys were busy as all get out, it seems. Want to try next week?
Yeah, defo. The world needs to hear my dulcet tones.
Howdy fellow wanna-be stat nerds. Thank you for the how-to references for us behind the 8ball. Sad to admit I love baseball more than any other sport…but I’m not up to date on the statnerdness.
TYER – get my email? Next week?
Indeed. It’s on like, er, donkey kong. Whatever that means.
ANYBODY WANNA BUY MY 1986 TONY BERNAZARD BAT RIGHT NOW??? IT’S BROKEN, BUT TAPED TOGETHER WELL. VALUE’S RISING EXPONENTIALLY. KTHXBAI.
Did he break it over someone’s face and then use the two halves like nunchucks? Nothing is beyond the capabilities of Tony Bernazard!
Tony Bernazard was the original Tony Almeida!
Tony Almeida sang “Take Me Out To the Ballgame” at the Cubs game on Saturday. Mercifully, he did not attempt to avenge Michelle’s murder by blowing up Wrigley Field.
AWAITING DNA TESTS ON BLOOD AND HAIR SAMPLES. MAY OR MAY NOT BE JULIO FRANCO’S. CAN ATTACH DOCUMENTED TEST RESULTS W/ BAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRICE. LEMME KNOW IF INTERESTED!!11!
Good evening, delinquents. What’s doing?
SELLING PRIORLY-USED INSTRUMENT OF VIOLENCE FOR REASONABLE PRICE. FREE WIFEBEATER THROWN IN FOR NEWLY BETROTHED. PERFECT ADDITION TO ANY HONEYMOON.
What grown man goes by the name “Wandy?” Did he go to Hogwarts? (does Conan’s Harry Potter gesturing).
I now have wine in my possession.
My issue with sabermetrics is the snooty assumption that if you’ve quantified something, its somehow better. I understand the desire to quantify as much as possible every aspect of the game; that way, you don’t have to say “Yeah he won 20 games, but…” and so on. You can create a stat that takes into account that oral “yeah but” qualifier.
But as good as that is, (and I’m not an idiot, I do understand that its beneficial) its not the end-all of sports. I still believe in the mysticism of human existence, and its relation to sports. Here’s a fact, here’s a stat: there’s a lot of shit you can’t explain. Guys can just go out and pitch a hell of a game and blank everyone, then never do it again. Statistics might have to eventually rule it an anomaly, but that doesn’t change the fact that it happened.
I like to compare “sabermetrics” vs. (what’s the word? Tradition? Joe Morgan?) to a new doctor and an old doctor. Let’s face it, there’s a lot of shit that happens in our bodies that can’t be explained by any existing medical theory, and as far we can tell, can never be explained. But if you talk to the old guys who’ve seen it all, there’s a good chance that they know what’s up, even without any hard evidence. I think there’s a fair comparison to sports in that.
Now I don’t begrudge people who try to learn and explore these mysteries, but what I think is truly annoying about the stat people vs. the traditional people is the attitudes on both sides. Stat people seem to enjoy riling the old guard and assuming that they know more about the game because they have numbers to prove it, while the old-heads like to think of the stat people as assuming that they’ve figured out everything there is to know about the game and have boiled it down to a science. My thoughts are that the more you know, the better, but don’t rule out human intuition and those wacky things that scouts seem to know.
As for the actual statistics, I suck at math.
One other issue, which I didn’t address in the post because I was trying to keep it under a million words:
I wish it wasn’t a “stats VERSUS scouts” thing. I’d be surprised if you found me a stathead who never actually watches any baseball. We still love watching baseball; we can still be moved by its magical moments. One wish I have is that the “traditional” guys – the Joe Morgans of the world – would quit acting like statheads somehow hate baseball, just because we like to use databases and formulas to quantify the things that happen within the game.
Nobody whose work I’ve ever read thinks that baseball should be evaluated by stats alone. It’s more a matter of using these newer stats – which people have carefully created to be more accurate than the old ones – to help tell stories. I just don’t understand why that’s something for which statheads need to be demonized.
Oh, and it occurred to me about halfway through that comment that I ended up meandering WAY far away from CHA’s point. Whoops.
Yeah that’s what I mean about the attitudes. There seems to be too much tension between them, as if because you don’t understand what a WHIP is, you can’t tell that a pitcher who you didn’t know had a bad WHIP sucks.
Stats are just a tool, but just because you don’t use or like a certain tool doesn’t mean you can’t get the job done.
It’s a tool… and to liken it back to old doctor/new doctor… the old doctors are set in their ways, and some can’t/won’t adapt to new procedures and tests and non-invasive techniques… the old ways worked, and they’ve worked for years, so why change. What’s amusing (to me) is that most of what the stathead community pushes for are things that Branch Rickey was pushing 60 years ago. Was Branch Rickey ahead of his time? No, but he just had an idea that put forth winning beisbol.
Shaq on RAW. This might not end well…
shacksbigrack: oh shit they told me this was gonna be ufc hell it dont matter its all fake im bout to kick some a –
gurgled incoherently from the mat about 2 minutes ago
another update. Michael Cole sets white people back another 50 years with his lameness.
Well, I think Cryme Tyme obliged by setting back African-Americans the same 50 years, so now it’s 1959 in WWE-land.
Greetings ballgarglers.
Trying not to be such my usual Capt. Ranty McBringdown tonight, but I have no real good news to share right now.
So what’s yours?
The Mekalek’s are back to a full strength squad….8 week old Shepard named Murphy. That’s good news.
congrats man. shepards are terrific dogs.
I love statistics as well- and just to make Joe Morgan’s head explode, I almost enjoy baseball more as a source of data than as a game.
Now that that’s out of the way- I GOT A FUCKING JOB.
And my alma mater is the number one party school (not shocking, but still awesome).
Congrats! That’s awesome!
Maybe now would be a good time to mention that I got a job offer working directly w/ the mayor. I’m not sure if I will take it, for commuting reasons.
I would take it if your mayor is anything like Adam West. Sadly my job is in MD, so I won’t be anywhere near you west coasties.
Also- thanks…forgot that part…
Congrats! Where in MD? (That’s where I’m from originally).
Edgewood- like a half hour northeast-ish of Baltimore.
OK, I’m from the DC suburbs. Well, light attendance at Camden Yards. I’d be all over that.
I’m actually a Jays fan, so that works for me. And I have to assume Nationals tickets are free or something.
The mayor of LA???
Nods head.
Well that’s pretty sweet. I can’t put my finger on it but I’m pretty sure I heard some bad things about him. Then again you can’t possibly be the mayor of a major city without there being some nasty things being said about you. You never hear the good things.
Hey, he’s no Marion Berry.
He’s a fame whore who has ruined the LAUSD and cheated on his wife w/ a Telemundo reporter. I don’t like him, but it’s a job.
Yeah but him and Rob Dyrdek are great friends.
No, better, Mayor McCheese
awesomosity at it’s finest.
How would that work with your school schedule?
I only have one class on Monday in the evening and no classes on Fridays, so it would be only 4 days a week.
Omar Minaya accused the NY Daily News reporter who broke the Tony Bernazard AA throwdown story of trying to steal Bernazard’s job. God bless the Mets.
You guys should really click on Andrew’s article on TPP, not only to read it but to gaze in wonder at the beautiful Canadian porn ’stache I smuggled from one of his 900 other websites and posted it in the comments section. Behold!
Also, when is the podcast? Don’t know cuz I tawded.
Do you want to fuck Bucholtz’s stache?
Fuck is such a harsh word…make sweet, sweet love to.
You should tell him. You never know.
The more accurate question is, “Who doesn’t want to fuck Bucholtz’s stache?” There’s already a bounty on peephole-cam grooming footage.
Well, if he ever needs to make extra cash…
The AB jokes are clearly jokes and he will chuckle at them, right? Big fan of AB and you NEVER want to piss off someone with a Canadian porn stache.
I THINK HE WOULD…I CAN ASK HIM…
@Marissa – you are increasingly omnipresent, omnipotent, and omniscient. So was Jesus.
Ben Folds is coming to my town. Should I attend?
FUCK YES, YOU SHOULD
Maybe. I used to be a big fan back when Brick came out but haven’t heard much since then.
Podcast went well with CPSL. M, you should be on there sometime. I know you said you are too loud but you’d probably be fine.
Have a good one…
The Cast will be at 10:30 EDT, give or take a few minutes.
Apparently, Josh Willingham has hit 2 grand slams tonight. We may still never know about it since he plays for the Nationals.
That’s the traveling team that plays the Harlem Globetrotters, right?
Sup dude and dudettes?
Andy, my answer to the question you posed in the SP roundup is I think Sprite also dropped Kobe and there may have been others.
I think Sprite did, too, now that you mention it. Someone else dropped him and played it off like they were planning to all along, does that sound right?
Yeah, a simple Google search would solve it but I can’t be bothered. I’m currently trying to rebuild a twitter empire and slap some content together.
I wonder how many new companies are on the Kobe bandwagon? Actually, that’d make a good post if anyone (in this blog circle jerk we have going) wants to run with it.
Last time I checked most bloggers aren’t too keen on running.
ARE YOU CALLING ME FAT?
I’m not calling anyone anything, just reinforcing a stereotype.
BLAH, I WAS JUST KIDDING
MOST PEOPLE DON’T KID IN ALL CAPS.
/SAMUEL L. JACKSON’D
I’M TOO LAZY TO TAKE THE CAPS OFF
Ahh, laziness, the great equalizer.
Good call. How about ‘walk at a brisk pace?’
Anyone want anything linked in our roundup?
stylepointsblog@gmail.com
You’ve got 30 minutes.
I saw an episode of Law and Order SVU today where the stalker character was played by an actor who looked so much like Leitch. For once SVU was a comedy.
OH, THAT EPISODE WAS BATSHIT INSANE! THE JUDGE TWIST WAS STRAIGHT UP TELENOVELA!
It’s always a comedy to Big Ben. ZING!
So, listen to the show for things you didn’t expect to happen ever… I would say it, but it’s worth hearing on your own.
DID ONE OF YOU GUYS COME OUT? THAT I WOULD NOT EXPECT.
No something just as shocking, dear. Sorry, we’re both happily in love with our ladies.
Anyone having problems with Twitter? My ‘following’ column just went to zero and I’ve lost about a dozen followers.
NO, BUT ONE OF MY FRIENDS IS HAVING THAT PROBLEM.
When did Marissa become Death from Discworld?
I’M TOO LAZY TO TAKE THE CAPS BUTTON OFF
I like my reasoning better. The Death of Rats agrees.
Yes, I’m a huge nerd.
I’m guessing you’re a Pratchett fan, then?
Outstanding. Glad to see fellow Pratchett fans in the audience. Death is a brilliant character. It’s the little touches that do it; the curry, the swing, the hairbrushes, etc.
I’m a recent convert- I’ve only made it through the Death arc, and I’m making it through some other things before I tackle another. Mort might be my favorite book thus far though.
I’ve lost a few followers, and where it used to say “updates” it now says “tweets”
IS ANYONE STILL HERE?????